1. Why is the 1.5 degree Celsius target critical?

Intense heat: A man crosses the dry and cracked bed of the Koparli dam in Peth Taluka village, Nashik, Maharashtra on May 26. 

What do the recent reports by the World Meteorological Organization say about the future of climate change? Why did international climate dialogues switch from the target of 2 degree Celsius above the baseline temperature of pre-industrial levels to 1.5 degree Celsius?

The story so far:

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released two reports titled “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2023-2027” and “State of Global Climate 2022.” The decadal predictions of the WMO said that the annual mean global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1-1.8 degree Celsius higher than the baseline temperature of 1850-1900 or pre-industrial levels. In 2022, it was 1.15 degrees above the baseline, and by 2027, the average will exceed 1.5 degrees, a critical point beyond which there may be no return.

What is the 1.5 degree Celsius target?

The 1.5 degree Celsius target is the global climate target that aims to limit warming to said level by 2100, in order to prevent the planet from slipping into further climate crises. For decades, 2 degree was an acceptable level of warming. The idea of 1.5 degree was perceived as unrealistic and unachievable. However, the 2 degree target was unacceptable to small island countries as it implied that their survival was compromised.

In 2010, at the Cancun COP16 , countries agreed to limit the global average warming to below 2 degree Celsius. In 2015, the parties to the Paris Agreement pledged to limit the average temperature rise to below 2 degree, while actively aiming for 1.5 degree above pre-industrial levels. This was endorsed as a global target by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2018 and since then has been pursued in all climate dialogues.

Why is the 1.5 degree target critical?

In 2018, the IPCC released a special report on the impact of global warming when temperature reaches 1.5 degree Celsius above baseline. It also drew a comparison with the effects of 2 degree Celsius warming. It was estimated that anthropogenic activities would have already caused 1 degree of warming, likely to reach 1.5 degree between 2030 and 2052 at the current rate. Frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, heavy precipitation, an additional 10-centimetre rise in sea level, destruction of ecosystems and mostly irreversible changes can be witnessed at the 2 degree level.

However, discussions on the average temperature rise do not imply that the current warming is uniform across the planet. For example, warming greater than the global average is being experienced in the Arctic, with the term ‘polar amplification’ gaining more traction. The regional differences and the vulnerability factors spell more urgency for climate action which must limit the average planetary warming to 1.5 degree.

Why are we missing the target?

Historically, developed countries are responsible for a major chunk of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, they are expected to assume more responsibility and implement climate action. However, the Climate Performance Index over the years has shown otherwise. Countries like Australia, the U.S., Japan, Russia and Canada have made little progress in meeting their pledges. Additionally, polluters like China, Iran and Saudi Arabia rank low in climate performance.

The pandemic pushed the world into a socio-economic crisis. On the road to recovery, countries pledged measures to build-back. However, in most cases there is little to no consideration for building-back in a sustainable manner. The Ukraine conflict has further added to woes and sparked an energy crisis threatening climate goals.

Are extreme weather events linked to the global rise in temperature?

The predictions of the recently released reports point to precipitation anomalies and an increase in marine heat waves as compared to marine cold spells. The El Niño, which is currently brewing, will further strengthen this year, resulting in a 98% possibility of witnessing temperatures higher than 2016 at least in one of the years in the 2023-27 period. The cryosphere is shrinking, and there is a mass loss of glaciers in High-mountain Asia, Western North America, and South America. Due to the alarming rate of warming of the Arctic Ocean, the Greenlandic ice sheet is melting at a faster pace, contributing to the increase in sea level.

Climate risks and hazards impact human population and the ecosystem depending on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. It has exacerbated food insecurity, displacement, and deaths. Climate change has been affecting crop yield negatively and the risks posed by agricultural pests and diseases have also increased in the past few years. Countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and Afghanistan are facing acute food shortages resulting in malnutrition and hunger, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. However, food insecurity in these countries is due to the complex interaction of climate conditions with other factors such as droughts, cyclones, and political and economic instability.

The heatwaves in Pakistan and India in 2022 also resulted in a decline in crop yields. The floods in Pakistan affected croplands in southern and central parts of the country and displaced eight million people within the country.

The Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya) has been witnessing extreme drought conditions since 2020, while at the same time, western African countries are seeing floods and heavy rainfall which has pushed millions into acute food insecurity. Such shortage of food has also led to mass displacement within and across borders. In Syria and Yemen, thousands have been displaced owing to the floods, storms, and heavy snowfall.

Aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have also not been immune to such changes in climate patterns. Phenological shifts and mismatches have been recorded due to climate change. The population of migratory species has declined in Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the warming above 1.5 degree Celsius can prove lethal for coral reefs which are already prone to bleaching. According to the WMO, extreme weather anomalies have caused the deaths of two million people and incurred $4.3 trillion in economic damages over the past fifty years. In 2020-2021, 22,608 disaster deaths were recorded globally.

How is India impacted?

India has been increasingly facing the brunt of climate change. February 2023 was recorded as the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1901. In 2022, India witnessed extreme weather events for 80% of the days. Indian monsoons were wetter than usual last year after recording extreme heat during the pre-monsoon period, resulting in wildfires in Uttarakhand and acute food shortages.

According to the Climate Change Performance Index 2023, India ranked eighth with a high-performance after Denmark, Sweden, Chile, and Morocco. Being an emerging economy with development needs, it is attempting to balance its development needs with ongoing climate action both at the domestic and international levels. With domestic measures like the Green Hydrogen Mission and the introduction of green bonds, India is performing fairly well despite contributing only a miniscule to cumulative GHG emissions. At the international level, through the International Solar Alliance and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, India can prove to be a responsible climate player keeping in mind that it has a long way to go in very little time.

The writers are doctoral scholars at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

THE GIST

The decadal predictions of the World Meteorological Organization said that the annual mean global surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1-1.8 degree Celsius higher than the baseline temperature of 1850-1900 or pre-industrial levels.

For decades, 2 degree was an acceptable level of warming. The idea of 1.5 degree was perceived as unrealistic and unachievable. However, the 2 degree target was unacceptable to small island countries as it implied that their survival was compromised.

Climate risks and hazards impact human population and the ecosystem depending on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. It has exacerbated food insecurity, displacement, and deaths.

According to the WMO, extreme weather anomalies have caused the deaths of two million people and incurred $4.3 trillion in economic damages over the past fifty years

2. India sees reduction in stunting; but wasting, obesity are concerns: report

1.6 crore fewer stunted children aged under five in 2022 than in 2012, show Joint Malnutrition Estimates released by UNICEF, WHO and World Bank; prevalence of obesity marginally increased during the decade, report says

Commensurate with global and regional trends, India continues to show a reduction in stunting and recorded 1.6 crore fewer stunted children under five years in 2022 than in 2012, according to the Joint Malnutrition Estimates released by the UNICEF, the WHO and the World Bank.

However, wasting continues to remain a concern and so does growing levels of obesity.

Stunting among children under five years in India dropped from a prevalence rate of 41.6% in 2012 to 31.7% in 2022 with the numbers dropping from 52 lakh to 36 lakh. This was accompanied by India’s share of the global burden of stunting declining from 30% to 25% in the past decade.

The overall prevalence of wasting in 2022 was 18.7% in India, with a share of 49% in the global burden. The prevalence of obesity marginally increased in a decade from 2.2% in 2012 to 2.8% in 2022 with the numbers growing to 31.8 lakh from 27.5 lakh, thereby contributing to 8.8% of the global share. But the overall classification for obesity is low and much lower than the global prevalence of 5.6%.

Globally, stunting declined from a prevalence rate of 26.3% in 2012 to 22.3% in 2022.

There was no improvement on the weight issue worldwide, as its prevalence rate grew from 5.5% to 5.6%. There was a global prevalence of 6.8% in 2022, but there is no comparison available for past years as it is based on national-level country prevalence data.

The JME report says there is insufficient progress to reach the 2025 World Health Assembly global nutrition targets and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 targets and only about one-third of all countries are ‘on track’ to halve the number of children affected by stunting by 2030. Even fewer countries are expected to achieve the 2030 target of 3% prevalence for overweight.

In line with NFHS

The decline in stunting in India is commensurate with National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-5 (2019-2021) data which estimated its prevalence at 35.5% as against 38% in NFHS-4 (2016) and 48% in NFHS-3 (2006).

“This is the first time I noted in a global report that the problem has started to shift from South Asia. The relative contribution of India’s global burden from 29 to 24 was interesting. NFHS-5 showed evidence of continued reduction of stunting and instances of underweight children, though anaemia was disappointing. It also showed an improvement in access to health services — family planning, ante-natal care, deworming, breastfeeding counselling,” said Arjan Wagt, Chief of Nutrition and UNICEF India Deputy Representative, Programmes, adding that he remained hopeful of a further improvement in NFHS-6.

Wasting though is an outlier, Mr. Wagt explains. “In the past few years, we have learnt more about it. It is a challenging indicator, which assesses acute malnutrition over short periods… In India, on the basis of our analysis of a small cohort, we have found that two-thirds of children at 12 or 24 months had wasting at birth or at one month of age. This means two-thirds of the wasting is caused by maternal malnutrition.”

3. ‘From prevalence in eight States in 2001, dengue now a nationwide infection’

The WHO says half of the world population is at risk.

Faced with a shortage of entomologists, a trickier vector, increased travel, and less than optimal public participation for prevention, the infection geography of dengue, which was restricted to eight States in 2001, currently covers all the States and Union Territories in India. Dengue has now breached the country’s last bastion, Ladakh (with two cases in 2022), senior health officials say.

As the country gets ready to welcome the southwest monsoon, which is associated with the rise of certain diseases, including malaria, dengue and zika, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) confirmed that dengue’s infection geography has grown.

“During the past two decades, there has been a significant geographical spread of dengue with an 11-fold increase and repeated outbreaks. …Rural areas contributed approximately 32% of the total cases in 2015-16 and have increased to 41%-45% now,” experts maintained.

Half of world at risk

The World Health Organization estimates the global incidence of dengue has grown over recent decades, with half of the world population now at risk. The ICMR said that this risk from dengue, which is now endemic in more than 100 countries, has been propelled by several factors, including climate change, increased urbanisation and increased travel.

Himmat Singh, from the ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, notes that the problems in the control of the Aedes-borne disease are manifold. “Day-biting habit, multiple biting, long incubation period, fast transport, eggs retained up to one year, container breeding, human environment, and intermittent water supply and poor waste management at construction sites add to the problem,” Dr. Singh said.

According to the Central government’s paper on dengue outbreaks in India, the dengue vector is very different from the malaria vector and so, bio-environmental strategies alone will not work. This, coupled with the shortage of entomologists in the country, works to help the spread of dengue.

ICMR officials said that besides the work on vaccines, they were also looking at increasing awareness and promoting prevention, people’s participation, and the use of the latest technology, including satellite imaging and drones to map vulnerable areas.

4. Delhi HC sets up panel to implement Centre’s rare diseases policy

The Delhi High Court has set up a five-member panel to implement the Centre’s rare diseases policy in an efficient manner and ensure that its benefits reach patients.

The National Rare Diseases Committee will also look into the case of these patients, enrolled with the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Delhi, and the manner in which their treatment can begin.

Under the National Policy for Rare Diseases, 2021, hundreds of patients — mostly children — are registered with the “digital portal for crowdfunding and voluntary donations for patients of rare diseases by the Union Health Ministry. However, the government has been unable to fully finance their treatment due to high costs, resource constraints, and competing health priorities.

Justice Prathiba M. Singh, in her order dated May 15, observed, “…there is a need for some urgent steps to be taken in close coordination between the medical community, the providers of therapies for rare diseases and governmental agencies”.

“Under the current framework, the Centres for Excellence are not centrally coordinated, leading to lack of timely availability and adequate therapies for patients with rare diseases,” she added.

The court ordered the panel to explore procurement of therapies and drugs, and the creation of associated logistical framework to administer treatment. It has been hearing a batch of petitions by rare disease patients and their caretakers, which contend that medicines and therapies are exorbitantly expensive.

Over the years, the number of patients on the Health Ministry’s list has risen to 574, but mere registration does not guarantee timely treatment.

Tarush Goel, a resident of Uttar Pradesh’s Amroha, suffers from Hunter Syndrome (MPS II), a genetic disorder that causes skeletal abnormalities, respiratory issues and other problems. His father, Abhishek Goel, said they had visited AIIMS several times, but the doctors had told him there were no medicines to treat the six-year-old.

“Now, we are not giving him any medication or treatment,” he added.

On December 2021, the Delhi HC had urged the Centre to look into the matter, saying that patients identified under the National Policy for Rare Diseases cannot be made to suffer due to lack of funds.

In its latest order, the High Court ordered the National Rare Diseases’ Committee to take up on an “urgent basis” the immediate requirement of patients to commence the treatment stopped due to lack of funding.

Court orders that treatment stopped from lack of funding be taken up on an ‘urgent basis’