1. Semiconductor fab: the unfinished agenda
Ajay Kumar, former Defence Secretary, is Distinguished Visiting Professor, IIT Kanpur.
To set up a semiconductor fabrication plant in India is not mere hubris. There is a growing market. There are also strategic reasons: India’s susceptibility to coercion increases due to its dependence on the import of semiconductors. Therefore, the government’s 2022 Semiconductor Mission is laudable. But today, there is still uncertainty about whether India will have a fab. In this context, it is important to understand why earlier attempts failed and examine alternate approaches.
Earlier attempts
The first serious attempt was made in 2007 in the form of a Special Incentive Package (SIP), but it yielded no response. The second attempt in the form of Modified SIP in 2012 fared better. After over two years of extensive outreach with practically all the major fab companies in the world, India came close to having a fab. Two consortia were approved by the Cabinet with an attractive set of incentives. Jaiprakash Associates in partnership with IBM and Israeli company TowerJazz constituted one, while the other was led by Hindustan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation along with ST Microelectronics. The two fabs together involved investment of $10 billion, and the government offered incentives amounting to nearly $5 billion in the form of cash and tax cuts. Locations for the fabs were finalised and land was allotted. But finally, both failed to mobilise resources.
Semiconductor fabrication represents the ultimate frontier of human tech advancement. The frontier has been advancing adhering to Moore’s law that the number of transistors in a unit area doubles every 18 months. But the progress of miniaturisation is accompanied by higher complexity and costs. As a result, the industry has seen a decline in the number of participants.
China started late in the semiconductor fab industry. But backed by massive government financial support over the last two decades, it acquired hundreds of loss-making fabs from around the world and built its fab industry. Aided by lower manufacturing costs and a massive electronics manufacturing industry, China’s chip production has grown rapidly. By the time the U.S., the traditional leader in this game, realised, China had become one of the major producers of chips. Aided by its market supremacy in rare earths, which are essential for chip production, it has a strategic stranglehold on chip-making. Over the last year, the U.S. and its Western allies have blocked the transfer of the latest fab-related technology to China. But this could be a case of closing the stable door after the horses have bolted. The U.S. enacted the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022, with nearly $40 billion in subsidies, in an effort to bring back semiconductor manufacturing to the the country. The European Union sanctioned €7.4 billion for a new fab in France. India will have to contend with these countries in what has become an intense chip warfare.
Investment in a semiconductor fab is one of the riskiest. Billions of dollars need to be recovered before the technology becomes obsolete. This necessitates substantial production volumes for economic viability, often reaching levels that are adequate to meet global demand. It is therefore difficult to conceive of a fab which is based on the domestic market only. The advantage of semiconductors having a small freight-to-price ratio and a zero-custom duty regime under the Information Technology Agreement, 1996, facilitates production in a single location and global sales. This is why no company is interested in setting a greenfield fab.
Developing an ecosystem for chip manufacturing in a greenfield location is a major challenge. Hundreds of chemicals and gases are required for chip fabrication, people need to be trained, and abundant clean water be made available. But above all is the art of chip-making. Despite the best of equipment, poor quality and low yields can make fabs fail.
There are other issues, such as whether to set up a logic/processor, memory or analog fab. An electronic equipment and its functionalities are characterised by their logic chips, which are therefore strategically important and generate the highest profit. The most advanced set of technologies is needed to manufacture them. Analog chips are essential, but have the least strategic value. Memory fabs use the most advanced feature nodes, while analog fabs can be even as large as 130 nm. Logic fabs are the most expensive and analog fabs the least. A relatively easier option is Assembly, Testing, Packaging and Marking (ATMP), to get the fab ecosystem developed before the full-fledged fab is set up. But ATMPs have little value in terms of actual chip-making.
Lessons from China
India’s strategy has been to set up a new logic fab. China, which acquired loss-making fabs and then set up its own logic fab, provides lessons. Acquiring existing fabs has many advantages: they are reasonably priced, have stabilised technology, a supply chain ecosystem, an established product line, and market. They will enable India to build the fab ecosystem and train human resources. Much lower subsidies would be required, and the funds saved could be used for advanced R&D in fab technologies which will help build state-of-the-art fab in next few years. Another strategy could be setting up ATMPs. Tessolve, now acquired by Tatas, had set up an ATMP in 2013-14. This ATMP is successfully packaging chips upto 7 nm feature size. China has over 100 ATMPs.
China started on the fab journey about 20 years ago. As the Chinese saying goes, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, but the second best time is now.
India, which is way behind China on the fab journey, could take lessons from its neighbour
2. SC refuses urgent hearing on plea seeking Army protection for Kukis
The top court lists the case for July 3 after the summer vacation, saying Manipur violence is a ‘purely law and order issue’ and it chooses to trust the administration to bring peace; it added that any court intervention may ‘aggravate’ the situation
The Supreme Court on Tuesday termed the Manipur ethnic violence, which has left nearly 100 dead, a “purely law and order issue”, while “hoping” that courts will not be asked to deploy the Army or Central security forces.
A Vacation Bench of Justices Surya Kant and M.M. Sundresh refused to list a plea by the Manipur Tribal Forum Delhi (MTFD) for Army protection to the Kuki tribal people urgently, in a day or two. It listed the case for July 3, after the summer vacation, saying it was the earliest the case could be heard.
The Bench indicated that its intervention, one way or the other, now may tend to “aggravate” the situation in the State, which has seen clashes since May 3 between the dominant Meitei community and Kuki-Zomi tribes, and create “more problems”.
The court chose to trust the administration to work to bring peace back to the State.
Solicitor-General Tushar Mehta, for Manipur and the Union governments, said, “Security forces are on the ground… they are doing their best.”
Senior advocate Colin Gonsalves, for the MTFD, said violence and “killings” have continued despite the “solemn assurances” given by the government in the Supreme Court to protect the people.
“Tribal areas have been attacked. Tribals have been killed. I want Army protection,” Mr. Gonsalves pleaded.
“We hope courts are not asked to pass these kinds of orders… that Army should be deployed, Central forces should be deployed… This is purely a law and order issue… let the administration look into it,” the court replied.
“We have come to Your Lordships because you are the only institution now that can protect the tribals… It is a rampage… Solemn assurances were given to this court, yet tribals have been killed,” Mr. Gonsalves said. Mr. Mehta said similar pleas had been filed before the vacation, but the top court had chosen not to intervene in the situation while posting them after the holidays.
“Let the security situation become better, public interest petitions can wait,” he said.
On May 17, the Solicitor-General had said the situation in the State had “improved a lot”. He had said the State was “peaceful and quiet”.
Immediate trigger
The MTFD application has sought “immediate directions to the Army to take full control of the law and order and public order situation in the districts of Churachandpur, Chandel, Kangpokpi, Imphal East, Imphal West and villages in Manipur to ensure with immediate effect that the killing of Kukis comes to an end”.
The immediate trigger for the violence has been a March 27 order by the Manipur High Court’s Single Judge Bench of Acting Chief Justice M.V. Muralidharan, directing the State government to “consider the case of the petitioners for inclusion of the Meetei/Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribe list, expeditiously, preferably within a period four weeks from the date of receipt of a copy of this order”.
On May 17, a Bench led by Chief Justice of India D.Y. Chandrachud had orally indicated its inclination to stay the High Court order.
However, the State had urged the top court not to do so for the time being as a stay may further affect the situation on the ground.
The High Court has however issued notice in a petition filed by the Meitei Tribes Union to review its contentious March 27 order.
3. Central teams to visit States reeling under heat stress
Summer distress: Patients and their attendants at the emergency ward of the Ballia District Hospital in Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday.
Health Minister says experts will support them in the public health response to heat-related illnesses; daily surveillance on under the National Programme on Climate Change and Health
A team of experts from the Union Health Ministry will visit States such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to support them in the public health response to heat-related illnesses, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said on Tuesday.
“Several States have been experiencing severe heat conditions for the past few days, and this underscores the importance of sturdy and timely preparedness through awareness and early actions,” Mr. Mandaviya said at a meeting on public health preparedness for heatwave management in the country.
He said the Ministry had issued a heatwave advisory earlier this year asking the States to ensure availability of essential medicines, intravenous fluids, oral rehydration salts, drinking water and so on.
Daily weather forecast
Mr. Mandaviya said the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) would conduct research on how to minimise the effect of heatwave on health, with action plans for the short, medium and long terms.
The Ministry has asked the India Meteorological Department to issue daily weather forecasts that can be easily interpreted and disseminated.
At the meeting, the Minister was informed that daily surveillance on heat-related illness under the National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health had been ensured in all States and districts on the Integrated Health Information Platform.
The Ministry, in a release, said a national action plan on heat-related illness was released in July 2021 outlining the standard operating procedures for surveillance of heat stroke cases and deaths with a preparedness plan before and during the summer.
“Sensitisation of masses is important, but sensitisation and capacity building of medical officers, health staff and grassroots-level workers on heat-related illness, its early recognition and management is also important,” the Health Ministry said.
4. Childline 1098 to be merged with 112 line in 9 States
In a first, the Women and Child Development (WCD) Ministry has decided to do away with the concept of NGOs running Childline (a counselling and distress relief helpline for children) which has been attending to children under emergency since 1995.
In the first phase, the Ministry has merged the 1098 helpline with the 112 Emergency Response Support System (ERSS) in nine States Union Territories where operations will start by June-end. They are Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Dadra and Nagar Haveli & Daman & Diu, Gujarat, Goa, Ladakh, Mizoram and Puducherry. The others will be on board in a phased manner, the Ministry official said.
The Ministry officials said the merger was being done as part of the broader vision of “One nation, one helpline”. Hence, Childline (1098) is being merged with the ERSS-112.
The Ministry, under the erstwhile Child Protection Services Scheme, was supporting the 24×7 helpline Childline service, through Childline India Foundation (CIF) and its partner NGOs. The CIF had been rendering Childline Services in 568 districts, 135 railway stations and 11 bus stands through its network of 1,000-plus units.
“The response time by the CIF is about 60 minutes to respond to children’s distress calls. The current system, however, lacks interoperability with the police, fire and ambulance services which leads to loss of precious time in distress situations,” the official said.
The CIF network could cover only 568 districts which had left almost 200 districts uncovered under Childline, which is why the decision of merger of Childline was taken.
Speaking about the detailed Standard Operating Procedures (SoPs) for the merger, the Ministry official said that the States had to ensure a dedicated 24×7 WCD Control Room which will be integrated with the ERSS.
Further, at the district level, the Child Helpline (CHL) unit at the District Child Protection Unit will be available round the clock to provide outreach services for children in crisis, linking them to emergency and long-term care and rehabilitation services.
Helpdesk at stations
The States and Union Territories, as per the SoPs of Railways, would continue setting up child helpdesks or booths at selected railway stations and bus stands.
The Ministry has entrusted the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Kerala as a total solution provider for automation of Child Helpline 1098 and its integration with the ERSS-112.
The Ministry official said the incoming calls to 1098 will be classified into three categories: emergency, non-emergency and information calls.
All emergency calls can be forwarded from 1098 to 112 or vice versa at the switch of a button, the Ministry official said.
District Child Protection Unit will be available round the clock to provide outreach service for children in emergency
5. NaBFID eyes ₹60,000 crore loan book by March 2024
Infrastructure lender is also looking to sanction ₹1 lakh crore loans this fiscal, to both greenfield as well as brownfield assets in the key infrastructure space, says Managing Director Rajkiran Rai G
National Bank for Financing Infrastructure & Development (NaBFID) aims to disburse about ₹60,000 crore by the end of this fiscal, having lent ₹8,000 crore already in the first quarter, a top official said.
The government-backed infrastructure financier, which began operations less than a year ago, is also looking to sanction ₹1 lakh crore loans this fiscal to both greenfield as well as brownfield assets in the key infrastructure space, Rajkiran Rai G, MD, told PTI on Tuesday, after listing its maiden ₹10,000-crore bonds on the BSE.
Last week, the lender raised ₹10,000 crore through debt issuance, which received close to five times or bids worth ₹23,629.50 crore against a base issue of ₹5,000 crore.
NaBFID is offering 7.43% on the unsecured non-convertible debt securities of 10-year tenor. This is the largest debt issuance by a national-level institution.
“We had disbursed ₹18,000 crore last fiscal and… hope to close the year with around ₹60,000 crore of loan book,” Mr. Rai said exuding confidence in the interest in the country’s infrastructure.
6. Climate breakdown: the Arctic Ocean could beice-freeby the 2030s
An aerial view of an iceberg in the Arctic Ocean in September 2018.
Considerable effort has been invested in determining when the Arctic Ocean might first become ice-free in summer, a.k.a. a ‘blue ocean event’ . We do not know exactly when the last blue ocean event happened, but one in the near future would mean open water at the North Pole for the first time in millennia
JONATHAN BAMBER
The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study inNature Communications.
Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast). What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences.
The Arctic has been experiencing climate heatingfaster than any other part of the planet. As it is at the frontline of climate change, the eyes of many scientists and local indigenous people have been on the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in winter. This thin film of frozen seawater expands and contracts with the seasons, reaching a minimum area in September each year.
The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around7 million sq. km to 4 million. That is a loss equivalent to roughly the size of India or 12 UKs. In other words, it’s a big signal, one of the most stark and dramatic signs of fundamental change to the climate system anywhere in the world.
As a consequence, there has been considerable effort invested in determining when the Arctic Ocean might first become ice-free in summer, sometimes called a “blue ocean event” and defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq. km. This threshold is used mainly because older, thicker ice along parts of Canada and northern Greenland is expected to remain long after the rest of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. We can’t put an exact date on the last blue ocean event, but one in the near future would likely mean open water at the North Pole for the first time inthousands of years.
One problem with predicting when this might occur is that sea ice is notoriously difficult to model because it is influenced by both atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as the flow of heat between these two parts of the climate system. That means that the climate models – powerful computer programs used to simulate the environment – need to get all of these components right to be able to accurately predict changes in sea ice extent.
Melting faster than predicted
Back in the 2000s, an assessment of early generations of climate models found they generallyunderpredicted the loss of sea icewhen compared to satellite data showing what actually happened. The models predicted a loss of about 2.5% per decade, while the observations were closer to 8%.
The next generation of models did better but werestill not matching observationswhich, at that time were suggesting a blue ocean event would happen by mid-century. Indeed, the latestIPCC climate science report, published in 2021, reaches a similar conclusion about the timing of an ice-free Arctic Ocean.
As a consequence of the problems with the climate models, some scientists have attempted to extrapolate the observational record resulting in the controversial and, ultimately, incorrect assertion that this would happenduring the mid 2010s. This did not help the credibility of the scientific community and its ability to make reliable projections.
The scientists behind the latest study have taken a different approach by, in effect, calibrating the models with the observations and then using this calibrated solution to project sea ice decline. This makes a lot of sense, because it reduces the effect of small biases in the climate models that can in turn bias the sea ice projections. They call these “observationally constrained” projections and find that the Arctic could become ice-free in summer as early as 2030, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then.
There is still plenty of uncertainty around the exact date – about20 years or so– because of natural chaotic fluctuations in the climate system. But compared to previous research, the new study still brings forward the most likely timing of a blue ocean event by about a decade.
You might be asking the question: so what? Other than some polar bears not being able to hunt in the same way, why does it matter? Perhaps there are even benefits as the previous US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo,once declared– it means ships from Asia can potentially save around 3,000 miles of journey to European ports in summer at least.
But Arctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system. As it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean, removing this ice is predicted to further accelerate warming, through a process known as a positive feedback. This, in turn, will make the Greenland ice sheetmelt faster, which is already a major contributor tosea level rise.
The loss of sea ice in summer would also mean changes inatmospheric circulation and storm tracks, and fundamental shifts in ocean biological activity. These are just some of thehighly undesirable consequencesand it is fair to say that the disadvantages will far outweigh the slender benefits.
(Jonathan Bamber is professor of physical geography, University of Bristol.) This article is republished from The Conversation.
THE GIST
The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around7 million sq. km to 4 million sq.km. That is a loss equivalent to roughly the size of India or 12 UKs. In other words, it’s a big signal, one of the most stark and dramatic signs of fundamental change to the climate system anywhere in the world.
Back in the 2000s, an assessment of early generations of climate models found they generallyunderpredicted the loss of sea icewhen compared to satellite data showing what actually happened. The models predicted a loss of about 2.5% per decade, while the observations were closer to 8%.
Scientists behind the latest study have taken a different approach by, in effect, calibrating the models with the observations and then using this calibrated solution to project sea ice decline. This makes a lot of sense, because it reduces the effect of small biases in the climate models that can in turn bias the sea ice projections. They call these “observationally constrained” projections and find that the Arctic could become ice-free in summer as early as 2030, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then.
