| Select IAS IPS Daily Current Affairs Analysis | IAS IPS Daily Current Affairs Analysis |
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Headline: Developing Nations Wrongly Blamed for Emissions: Modi
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
PM Modi’s Statement: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the responsibility for carbon emissions had often been “wrongly placed” on developing countries. He also claimed that India was the only G-20 country to have fulfilled all the commitments it made at the 2015 Paris climate summit, and that it had done so ahead of schedule.
India’s Per Capita Emissions: “We all know that often the responsibility for carbon emissions has been wrongly placed on developing countries. Many of my companions from the Global South are present here,” Mr. Modi said. “But the historical truth is that even today, India’s per capita carbon emissions are less than half the global average,” he added. The per capita emissions in developed countries were six times India’s.
India’s Progress: Mr. Modi noted that solar capacity had grown from about 2 GW to more than 160 GW in 12 years and that non-fossil capacity had nearly quadrupled.
Nuclear Energy Hurdles: “Those who give long speeches on the environment — when I advance nuclear energy work, they will stand in the courts to stop it,” he added, “A pathway has also been created to bring private players into this sector.” The SHANTI Act from December 2025 enables this.
Independent Assessment: Independent assessments support part of the Prime Minister’s claim on Paris summit commitments. India’s first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) had three quantitative targets. The emissions-intensity and non-fossil capacity goals were both met several years early, and non-fossil capacity reached 52.57% of the total by February 2026.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper III: Environment & Ecology – Climate change, Carbon emissions, Climate commitments.
GS Paper II: International Relations – Global climate governance, Climate justice, Global South.
GS Paper III: Environment & Ecology – Renewable energy, Nuclear energy.
GS Paper II: Governance – Government policies, Climate action.
GS Paper III: Science & Technology – Nuclear energy, SHANTI Act.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. PM Modi’s Key Claims
| Claim | Details |
| Responsibility Misplaced | Carbon emissions responsibility “wrongly placed” on developing countries |
| Per Capita Emissions | India’s per capita emissions less than half the global average; developed countries six times higher |
| Paris Commitments | India is the only G-20 country to have fulfilled all commitments made at the 2015 Paris climate summit, ahead of schedule |
| Solar Capacity | Grown from ~2 GW to over 160 GW in 12 years |
| Non-Fossil Capacity | Nearly quadrupled |
| Nuclear Energy | “Those who give long speeches on the environment — when I advance nuclear energy work, they will stand in the courts to stop it” |
| SHANTI Act | Enables private players in nuclear energy sector |
B. Independent Assessment of India’s Paris Commitments
India’s first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) had three quantitative targets:
| Target | Status |
| Emissions Intensity | Met several years early |
| Non-Fossil Capacity | Met several years early; reached 52.57% of total by February 2026 |
| Additional Carbon Sink | 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 through afforestation; still in progress. India’s April 2026 submission to the UN puts the additional sink at 2.29 billion tonnes between 2005 and 2021, and says the country is on track |
C. Global Warming Context
| Source | Projection |
| UNEP (all NDCs implemented) | 2.3-2.5 degrees Celsius warming |
| UNEP (current policies) | 2.8 degrees Celsius warming |
| Paris Goal | Keep warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while pursuing 1.5 degrees Celsius |
| UNEP Limiting Overshoot Report | Warming set to cross 1.5 degrees Celsius, likely within the next few years; best-case peak at 1.8 degrees Celsius |
D. Nepal Flash Flood Context
The Prime Minister’s remarks follow the August 26 Nepal flash flood, caused by a glacier collapse. Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal had told the media that major emitters, including India, had a historical responsibility to compensate vulnerable nations. He later said neither he nor Nepal’s government had asked India, China, the United States or any other country for compensation.
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
Per Capita Carbon Emissions: The average amount of carbon dioxide emitted per person in a country; India’s is less than half the global average.
Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): The climate action plan submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement; India’s first NDC had three quantitative targets.
Paris Agreement (2015): A legally binding international treaty on climate change, adopted by 196 parties at COP21 in Paris; aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Global South: A term used to describe developing countries; PM Modi referenced the Global South in his remarks.
SHANTI Act: The Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India Act, 2025; enables private players in the nuclear energy sector.
Non-Fossil Capacity: Power generation capacity from sources other than fossil fuels, including solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear.
Additional Carbon Sink: The removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through afforestation and other means; India’s target is 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme; publishes reports on global warming projections.
Limiting Overshoot Report: UNEP report released on September 2, 2026, projecting that warming will cross 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next few years.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper III (Environment): “PM Modi has said that developing countries are wrongly blamed for carbon emissions. Analyse India’s climate commitments and progress in the context of global climate justice.”
GS Paper II (International Relations): “India’s per capita emissions are less than half the global average, yet developing countries face pressure to reduce emissions. Discuss the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities in this context.”
GS Paper III (Environment): “India has met two of its three Paris Agreement targets ahead of schedule. Examine the progress and challenges in achieving the third target on additional carbon sink.”
GS Paper III (Science & Technology): “PM Modi has highlighted hurdles to nuclear energy expansion, including legal challenges. Discuss the role of nuclear energy in India’s climate goals and the SHANTI Act’s provisions.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
Climate Justice: The principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) recognises that developed countries have historically contributed more to emissions and have greater capacity to address climate change. India’s position that developing countries are wrongly blamed for emissions aligns with this principle.
India’s Climate Action: India has made significant progress in renewable energy and has met two of its three Paris Agreement targets ahead of schedule. However, the third target on additional carbon sink remains in progress.
Global Warming Trajectory: The UNEP’s projections show that even with full implementation of all NDCs, warming will reach 2.3-2.5 degrees Celsius, short of the Paris goal. Current policies point to 2.8 degrees Celsius.
Nuclear Energy: PM Modi’s remarks on nuclear energy highlight the challenges of expanding this low-carbon energy source, including legal challenges from environmental groups. The SHANTI Act aims to enable private participation in the nuclear sector.
Nepal Flash Flood: The recent Nepal flash flood, caused by a glacier collapse, has raised questions about historical responsibility and compensation for vulnerable nations. Nepal’s Foreign Minister initially said major emitters had a historical responsibility but later clarified that Nepal was not asking for compensation.
Conclusion & Way Forward
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks at the NGT conference highlight India’s position on climate justice and its progress in meeting its Paris Agreement commitments. India’s per capita emissions are less than half the global average, and developed countries’ per capita emissions are six times higher. India has met two of its three NDC targets ahead of schedule, with the third on additional carbon sink still in progress.
The Prime Minister also highlighted the hurdles to nuclear energy expansion and the SHANTI Act’s provisions to enable private participation. The global warming trajectory, as projected by the UNEP, underscores the urgency of climate action and the need for developed countries to take the lead in reducing emissions.
The Way Forward
- Climate Justice: Continue to advocate for the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities at international forums.
- Meet NDC Targets: Ensure that the third NDC target on additional carbon sink is met by 2030.
- Expand Renewable Energy: Continue to scale up solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources.
- Nuclear Energy: Address legal and regulatory hurdles to nuclear energy expansion, including through the SHANTI Act.
- Climate Finance: Press developed countries to fulfil their commitment to provide climate finance to developing countries.
- Adaptation: Strengthen adaptation measures to address the impacts of climate change, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Himalayas.
- International Cooperation: Strengthen cooperation with other Global South countries on climate action and climate justice.
- Public Awareness: Raise awareness about India’s climate achievements and the challenges ahead.
India’s climate action is significant, but the global challenge requires coordinated efforts from all countries. As the world faces the prospect of crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, India’s voice for climate justice and its progress in renewable energy will be crucial in shaping the global response.
Headline: U.S., Denmark and Greenland Reach Agreement ‘to Strengthen Security’
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
Trilateral Agreement Reached: The U.S., Denmark, and Greenland said late on Friday they had reached an agreement for Washington to develop a significant military presence on Greenland, while prohibiting U.S. adversaries from building their own bases on the island.
Trump’s Claim of ‘Permanent Control’: U.S. President Donald Trump said the deal would give Washington “permanent control” over the Arctic island’s security, leaving its precise scope unclear. “The U.S. will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social. The deal “gives the U.S. permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland,” he added, stating that no adversary would ever be permitted to have a base or military presence in Greenland without U.S. approval.
Denmark and Greenland Insist on Sovereignty: On Saturday, Denmark and Greenland said any agreement with the U.S. would not compromise Greenland’s sovereignty. Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said the proposed deal “recognises the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our Kingdom and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination.” Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said the deal would respect “the (Danish) Kingdom’s red lines.”
Signing Expected: The deal is expected to be signed during the UN General Assembly next week.
Ending Months of Tension: Denmark and Greenland expressed hope that the deal would end months of uncertainty triggered by Mr. Trump’s threats to seize control of Greenland.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper II: International Relations – Great power competition, Arctic geopolitics, Transatlantic relations.
GS Paper II: International Relations – Sovereignty, Territorial integrity, Self-determination.
GS Paper III: Security – Military presence, Strategic competition, NATO.
GS Paper I: Geography – Arctic region, Strategic location.
GS Paper II: International Relations – U.S. foreign policy, Denmark-U.S. relations.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. Key Elements of the Agreement
| Aspect | Details |
| Parties | United States, Denmark, Greenland |
| Purpose | U.S. to develop significant military presence on Greenland |
| Prohibition | U.S. adversaries prohibited from building bases on the island |
| Trump’s Claim | U.S. will have “permanent control” over Greenland’s security |
| Danish/Greenlandic Position | Sovereignty and territorial integrity not compromised |
| Signing | Expected at UN General Assembly next week |
| Details | Key details not made public |
B. Trump’s Statement
| Statement | Details |
| Permanent Control | “The U.S will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America” |
| Security Control | “Gives the U.S. permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland” |
| Adversary Exclusion | No adversary permitted to have a base or military presence in Greenland without U.S. approval |
C. Denmark and Greenland’s Position
| Stakeholder | Statement |
| Greenland PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen | Deal “recognises the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our Kingdom and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination” |
| Denmark FM Lars Lokke Rasmussen | Deal would “strengthen security in the Arctic and the North Atlantic… while respecting the (Danish) Kingdom’s red lines” |
| Rasmussen (on timeline) | “Next week could be a good week – for Greenland, Denmark, and the U.S.” |
| Rasmussen (on uncertainty) | “A time of uncertainty will hopefully give way to a binding agreement” |
D. Background: Months of Tension
| Aspect | Details |
| Trigger | Trump’s threats to seize control of Greenland |
| Timeline | Months of uncertainty |
| Resolution | Trilateral agreement expected to be signed at UN General Assembly |
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
Greenland: The world’s largest island, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark; strategically located in the Arctic.
Sovereignty: The authority of a state to govern itself; Denmark and Greenland insisted that the deal would not compromise Greenland’s sovereignty.
Territorial Integrity: The principle that a state’s borders are inviolable; Greenland’s PM said the deal recognises the Kingdom’s territorial integrity.
Self-Determination: The right of a people to determine their own political status; Greenland’s PM referenced the Greenlandic people’s right to self-determination.
Arctic Security: The security dynamics in the Arctic region, which has gained strategic importance due to climate change and great power competition.
NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization; Denmark is a member, and the deal is expected to strengthen NATO’s shared security.
Permanent Control: Trump’s characterization of the deal, suggesting the U.S. would have enduring authority over Greenland’s security.
Red Lines: Denmark’s stated limits on what it would accept in the agreement.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper II (International Relations): “The U.S., Denmark, and Greenland have reached an agreement on military presence in Greenland. Analyse the implications for Arctic geopolitics and great power competition.”
GS Paper II (International Relations): “The agreement on Greenland balances U.S. security interests with Danish sovereignty. Discuss the challenges in reconciling great power interests with the sovereignty of smaller nations.”
GS Paper III (Security): “The Arctic is emerging as a key theatre of great power competition. Examine the strategic significance of Greenland and the implications of the U.S. military presence.”
GS Paper II (International Relations): “Trump’s claim of ‘permanent control’ over Greenland’s security contrasts with Denmark’s insistence on sovereignty. Analyse the diplomatic dynamics of the trilateral agreement.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
Arctic Geopolitics: The Arctic is becoming a critical region for great power competition, driven by climate change (which is opening new shipping routes and resource extraction opportunities) and the strategic location of Greenland.
Sovereignty vs. Security: The deal reflects the tension between U.S. security interests and Danish/Greenlandic sovereignty. Denmark and Greenland have insisted that the agreement respects their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Great Power Competition: The prohibition on U.S. adversaries building bases in Greenland is aimed at Russia and China, both of whom have shown interest in the Arctic. The deal strengthens the U.S. position in the region.
Self-Determination: Greenland’s PM referenced the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination, reflecting the territory’s aspirations for greater autonomy or independence.
NATO and Transatlantic Relations: The deal is expected to strengthen NATO’s shared security, but it also reflects the tensions in transatlantic relations following Trump’s threats to seize Greenland.
Climate Change: The Arctic is warming faster than any other region, and Greenland’s ice sheet is a critical component of the global climate system. The deal has implications for climate research and environmental protection.
Conclusion & Way Forward
The trilateral agreement between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland marks a significant development in Arctic geopolitics and great power competition. The deal allows the U.S. to develop a significant military presence on Greenland while prohibiting U.S. adversaries from building bases on the island. President Trump’s characterization of the deal as giving the U.S. “permanent control” over Greenland’s security contrasts with Denmark and Greenland’s insistence that their sovereignty and territorial integrity are not compromised.
The agreement is expected to be signed during the UN General Assembly next week, ending months of uncertainty triggered by Trump’s threats to seize control of Greenland.
The Way Forward
- Clarify Details: The precise scope of the agreement, including the nature and extent of U.S. military presence, should be clarified.
- Respect Sovereignty: Ensure that the agreement respects Denmark’s sovereignty and Greenland’s territorial integrity and right to self-determination.
- Strengthen NATO: Use the agreement to strengthen NATO’s shared security in the Arctic and North Atlantic.
- Arctic Cooperation: Promote cooperation among Arctic states on security, environmental protection, and sustainable development.
- Climate Research: Ensure that the U.S. military presence does not hinder climate research and environmental monitoring in Greenland.
- Greenland’s Development: Support Greenland’s economic development and aspirations for greater autonomy.
- Dialogue: Maintain dialogue between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland to address any concerns and ensure the agreement’s smooth implementation.
- Monitor Great Power Competition: Monitor the implications of the agreement for great power competition in the Arctic and take measures to prevent escalation.
The agreement on Greenland is a significant development in Arctic geopolitics, with implications for great power competition, transatlantic relations, and the sovereignty of smaller nations. The signing at the UN General Assembly will be closely watched, and the implementation of the agreement will shape the future of the Arctic region.
Headline: Prohibition Is No Solution to Alcoholism: Top Court
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
Prohibition Ineffective: The Supreme Court has observed that forced temperance is no solution to alcoholism, pointing to the consistent failure of Gujarat, a ‘dry State’ with a strict prohibition policy, in preventing hooch tragedies and the deaths of hundreds of people. “The State of Gujarat has witnessed at least 10 major mass hooch tragedies since the State’s formation, and Independence, claiming the lives of over 600 people. Despite the State of Gujarat maintaining a strict prohibition policy since its creation in 1960, hooch tragedies (laththa laced with methanol) have rapidly led to severe public health crises,” Justice J.B. Pardiwala, heading a Division Bench, said.
Total Ban Counterproductive: A total ban on alcohol only succeeds in sending the liquor trade underground, increasing the prevalence of unregulated, lethal brews, the court said. The recent hooch tragedies at Bhavnagar, Gujarat, and Sagar, Madhya Pradesh, which claimed around 13 and 15 lives, respectively, are a reminder for authorities to wake up and act.
Five Evils of Prohibition: The court listed five “evils” associated with prohibition — loss of revenue on taxes, expenditure on implementation and good money spent, corruption in police and excise, illegal distilling, and the resultant drug menace.
Rules Struck Down: The court was hearing a challenge to Rules 18A and 18B of the Maharashtra Poisons Rules, which restrict the purchase of methanol and mandate the addition of bitterant and colourant to methanol before sale to a non-drug manufacturer. The Rules had come into force after the 1991 Mumbai hooch tragedy that killed 93 people. The court found the Rules unconstitutional and arbitrary, imposing a heavy financial burden on industries without addressing the core problems.
Directions Issued: The Bench issued a series of directions, including breaking the chain of supply and demand of liquor, heightened vigilance at inter-State boundaries, monitoring industrial units that manufacture chemical solvents, and transporting methanol in dedicated tankers to eliminate pilferage or substitution.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper II: Governance – Public policy, Prohibition, Regulatory framework.
GS Paper II: Social Justice – Public health, Substance abuse.
GS Paper II: Polity – Directive Principles, Fundamental rights.
GS Paper III: Economic Development – Revenue, Excise policy.
GS Paper III: Internal Security – Illegal trade, Corruption, Drug menace.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. The Court’s Observations on Prohibition
| Observation | Details |
| Forced Temperance | No solution to alcoholism |
| Gujarat’s Experience | At least 10 major hooch tragedies; over 600 deaths despite strict prohibition since 1960 |
| Recent Tragedies | Bhavnagar (Gujarat): ~13 deaths; Sagar (Madhya Pradesh): ~15 deaths |
| Total Ban | Sends liquor trade underground, increases unregulated, lethal brews |
B. Five Evils of Prohibition
| Evil | Details |
| Loss of Revenue | Loss of taxes on alcohol |
| Expenditure | Spending on implementing prohibition |
| Corruption | Corruption in police and excise |
| Illegal Distilling | Unregulated production of liquor |
| Drug Menace | Resultant drug abuse |
C. The Maharashtra Poisons Rules Challenge
| Aspect | Details |
| Rules Challenged | Rules 18A and 18B of the Maharashtra Poisons Rules |
| Provisions | Restrict purchase of methanol; mandate addition of bitterant and colourant before sale to non-drug manufacturers |
| Context | Came into force after 1991 Mumbai hooch tragedy (93 deaths out of 250 consumers) |
| Court’s Finding | Unconstitutional and arbitrary; imposed heavy financial burden on industries; did not address core problems (pilferage, diversion, institutional corruption) |
D. The Court’s Directions
| Direction | Details |
| Break Supply Chain | Break the chain of supply and demand of liquor |
| Inter-State Vigilance | Heightened vigilance at inter-State boundaries to control illegal transport |
| Monitor Industrial Units | Monitor industrial units that manufacture chemical solvents and sell them illegally |
| Dedicated Tankers | Transport methanol in dedicated tankers to eliminate pilferage or substitution |
| School Premises | Prevent use of municipal school premises as storage for illegal liquor |
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
Prohibition: The legal ban on the production, sale, and consumption of alcohol; Gujarat has had a strict prohibition policy since 1960.
Hooch Tragedy: Deaths caused by consuming illegally produced or adulterated liquor, often containing methanol.
Methanol: A toxic alcohol used in industrial processes; when consumed, it can cause severe poisoning and death.
Maharashtra Poisons Rules: Rules restricting the purchase of methanol and mandating the addition of bitterant and colourant; Rules 18A and 18B were challenged.
Bitterant: A substance added to methanol to make it unpalatable, deterring human consumption.
Colourant: A substance added to methanol to distinguish it from drinkable alcohol.
Excise: A tax on the production, sale, or consumption of goods, including alcohol.
Drug Menace: The increase in drug abuse associated with prohibition, as consumers turn to alternative substances.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper II (Governance): “The Supreme Court has observed that prohibition is no solution to alcoholism, pointing to Gujarat’s experience. Critically examine the effectiveness of prohibition policies in India.”
GS Paper II (Social Justice): “Hooch tragedies continue to claim lives despite prohibition. Discuss the public health and regulatory challenges in addressing alcoholism and illicit liquor.”
GS Paper III (Economic Development): “Prohibition leads to loss of revenue and increased expenditure. Analyse the economic implications of prohibition policies.”
GS Paper II (Polity): “The Supreme Court has struck down the Maharashtra Poisons Rules as unconstitutional. Discuss the balance between public health regulation and industrial interests.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
Prohibition Policy: Prohibition has been implemented in several Indian states, including Gujarat, Bihar, and Nagaland. The Supreme Court’s observations highlight the challenges and unintended consequences of such policies.
Public Health vs. Prohibition: The court’s observation that forced temperance is no solution suggests a need for public health approaches to alcoholism, including de-addiction and counselling, rather than blanket bans.
Illicit Liquor Trade: Prohibition creates a black market for liquor, often controlled by criminal networks. The illicit trade poses serious health risks, as evidenced by hooch tragedies.
Corruption: The court noted corruption in police and excise as one of the evils of prohibition. This undermines the effectiveness of enforcement and erodes public trust.
Revenue Loss: Prohibition leads to significant loss of excise revenue for states, which could otherwise be used for public welfare.
Drug Menace: Prohibition can lead to a shift towards drug abuse, as consumers seek alternative substances.
Conclusion & Way Forward
The Supreme Court’s judgment on prohibition is a significant intervention in the ongoing debate on alcohol policy in India. The court’s observation that forced temperance is no solution to alcoholism, supported by Gujarat’s experience of over 600 deaths in 10 major hooch tragedies, highlights the failures of prohibition policies. The court’s listing of five evils — loss of revenue, expenditure, corruption, illegal distilling, and drug menace — provides a comprehensive critique of prohibition.
The striking down of the Maharashtra Poisons Rules as unconstitutional and arbitrary reflects the court’s view that such regulations impose heavy burdens without addressing the core problems. The court’s directions, including breaking the supply chain, heightened inter-State vigilance, monitoring industrial units, and dedicated methanol tankers, provide a practical framework for addressing hooch tragedies.
The Way Forward
- Public Health Approach: Shift from prohibition to public health approaches, including de-addiction, counselling, and harm reduction.
- Regulation: Consider regulated sale of alcohol with strict enforcement of quality and safety standards.
- Break Supply Chain: Implement the court’s directions to break the supply chain of illicit liquor.
- Inter-State Coordination: Strengthen coordination between states to control illegal transport of liquor.
- Monitor Industrial Chemicals: Monitor industrial units that manufacture and sell chemical solvents to prevent diversion.
- Dedicated Tankers: Implement dedicated tankers for methanol transport to eliminate pilferage.
- Address Corruption: Take measures to address corruption in police and excise departments.
- Revenue Generation: Use excise revenue from regulated alcohol sales for public welfare, including de-addiction programmes.
- School Premises: Prevent the use of school premises for illegal liquor storage.
- Awareness: Conduct public awareness campaigns on the dangers of illicit liquor and alcoholism.
The Supreme Court’s judgment provides a roadmap for addressing the complex issue of alcohol regulation in India. A balanced approach that combines regulation, public health, and enforcement is needed to address alcoholism and prevent hooch tragedies.
Headline: Experts Warn of Devastating El Niño Impacts on India
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
Scientists’ Joint Appeal: As many as 188 of India’s scientists and ecologists jointly published an appeal to fellow researchers and field practitioners to prepare for the effects of El Niño — a global weather phenomenon that dampens the monsoon and leads to extreme hot and dry conditions in the subcontinent.
Unprecedented Warming: In the Pacific Ocean where El Niño originates, temperatures have steadily risen above the 0.5 degree Celsius threshold, reaching 2.6 degree Celsius in August. Projections report possible anomalies of up to 4 degrees Celsius, which is higher than at any time in the past 1,000 years, based on reconstructions from coral cores.
Timeline: El Niño started in May and its main effects are expected to be felt in the northern hemisphere (including India) from November onwards into the next year, suggesting a “Super” El Niño.
Devastating Impacts: Over the coming months, the signatories warned, India’s natural systems are likely to experience a range of potentially devastating impacts, including widespread bleaching and mortality of coral, an increase in wildfires, and the death of large rainforest trees. With a high probability of drought and extreme heat conditions, this year’s El Niño is likely to be catastrophic for India’s farmers, fishers, and shepherds.
Call to Action: The “Call to Action” urges scientists to take advantage of the warning signs and mobilise as a community to document and study the impact of this event on India’s nature, arguing that better science and documentation are essential to preparing India for a climate-resilient future.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper I: Geography – Climate phenomena, El Niño, Monsoon.
GS Paper III: Environment & Ecology – Climate change, Extreme weather events.
GS Paper III: Disaster Management – Drought, Heatwaves, Wildfires.
GS Paper III: Agriculture – Crop failure, Farmer distress.
GS Paper III: Science & Technology – Climate science, Coral core reconstructions.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. El Niño’s Unprecedented Scale
| Parameter | Details |
| Pacific Temperature Anomaly | 2.6 degrees Celsius in August (above 0.5 degrees Celsius threshold) |
| Projected Anomalies | Up to 4 degrees Celsius |
| Historical Context | Higher than at any time in the past 1,000 years (based on coral core reconstructions) |
| Classification | “Super” El Niño |
| Timeline | Started in May; main effects expected from November onwards into next year |
B. Potential Impacts on India
| Impact | Details |
| Coral Reefs | Widespread bleaching and mortality |
| Wildfires | Increase in wildfires |
| Rainforests | Death of large rainforest trees |
| Agriculture | Drought and extreme heat conditions catastrophic for farmers |
| Fisheries | Impacts on fishers |
| Livestock | Impacts on shepherds |
| Subtle Impacts | Delayed fruit production, changes in animal behaviour |
C. Expert Warnings
| Expert | Warning |
| Jayashree Ratnam (National Centre for Biological Science) | “The coming year will be a litmus test for tropical forests and trees in India. Huge forest trees may appear indestructible, but in the Western Ghats, many of them are already near the limit of the heat they can tolerate” |
| Rohan Arthur (Nature Conservation Foundation) | “I have witnessed the devastating impacts of El Niños on India’s coral reefs before, and it is heartbreaking… The projected scale and intensity of the heat wave that is currently headed our way is truly scary” |
| Roxy Mathew Koll (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) | “India’s monsoon season is closing with a rainfall deficit, but the impacts may not end there. They can creep into the seasons ahead and cascade through depleted soil moisture and water storage, land and marine heatwaves, stressed crops and livelihoods, forest fires, coral bleaching and less visible ecological changes” |
D. The “Call to Action”
| Aspect | Details |
| Purpose | Prepare for El Niño effects; document and study impacts on India’s nature |
| Signatories | 188 Indian scientists and ecologists |
| Argument | Better science and documentation essential for climate-resilient future |
| Focus Areas | Coral reefs, forests, agriculture, fisheries, wildlife |
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
El Niño: A periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds; dampens the Indian monsoon and leads to extreme hot and dry conditions.
Super El Niño: An exceptionally strong El Niño event, with temperature anomalies significantly above the threshold.
Coral Bleaching: The loss of colour in corals due to stress, often caused by elevated sea temperatures; can lead to coral mortality.
Coral Cores: Samples drilled from coral skeletons that provide historical climate records, used to reconstruct past temperature anomalies.
Heat Island Effect: The phenomenon where urban areas are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas due to human activities and infrastructure.
Monsoon Deficit: Below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season; India’s monsoon season is closing with a rainfall deficit.
Cascading Impacts: The interconnected effects of a climate event that spread across ecosystems, sectors, and seasons.
Climate-Resilient Future: A future in which societies and ecosystems can withstand and adapt to climate change impacts.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper I (Geography): “The 2026 El Niño is projected to be the strongest in 1,000 years. Explain the mechanisms of El Niño and its potential impacts on India’s monsoon, agriculture, and ecosystems.”
GS Paper III (Environment): “Scientists have warned of devastating El Niño impacts on India’s coral reefs, forests, and agriculture. Discuss the ecological and socio-economic implications.”
GS Paper III (Disaster Management): “El Niño is likely to cause drought, heatwaves, and wildfires in India. Evaluate India’s preparedness for these extreme weather events.”
GS Paper III (Agriculture): “The projected El Niño is likely to be catastrophic for India’s farmers, fishers, and shepherds. Analyse the vulnerability of these communities and the measures needed to support them.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
Climate Change and El Niño: The increasing intensity of El Niño events is linked to climate change, which is raising global ocean temperatures and altering weather patterns. The 2026 event could be a harbinger of more frequent and intense El Niño events in the future.
Monsoon Variability: El Niño is a major driver of monsoon variability in India. A strong El Niño typically leads to below-normal monsoon rainfall, affecting agricultural production and water availability.
Coral Reefs: India’s coral reefs, including those in the Gulf of Mannar, Gulf of Kutch, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, are highly vulnerable to bleaching. The 2026 El Niño could cause widespread coral mortality.
Forests: Large trees in the Western Ghats are already near their heat tolerance limit. Extended droughts could cause widespread tree mortality, affecting biodiversity and carbon sequestration.
Agriculture and Livelihoods: Farmers, fishers, and shepherds are among the most vulnerable to El Niño impacts. Drought and extreme heat can lead to crop failure, livestock deaths, and declining fish catches.
Cascading Impacts: The impacts of El Niño can cascade through ecosystems and sectors, affecting soil moisture, water storage, land and marine heatwaves, forest fires, and coral bleaching.
Conclusion & Way Forward
The joint appeal by 188 Indian scientists and ecologists highlights the unprecedented scale of the 2026 El Niño and its potentially devastating impacts on India. With Pacific temperature anomalies reaching 2.6 degrees Celsius and projections of up to 4 degrees Celsius, this El Niño could be the strongest in 1,000 years. The main effects are expected from November onwards, with high probabilities of drought, extreme heat, coral bleaching, wildfires, and forest mortality.
The experts have called for a coordinated scientific effort to document and study the impacts of this event on India’s nature, arguing that better science and documentation are essential for preparing India for a climate-resilient future. The “Call to Action” emphasises the need to mobilise as a community and take advantage of the warning signs.
The Way Forward
- Mobilise Scientific Community: Coordinate research efforts to document and study El Niño impacts across ecosystems and sectors.
- Monitor Coral Reefs: Implement monitoring programmes to track coral bleaching and mortality in India’s reefs.
- Protect Forests: Take measures to protect vulnerable forest trees, including in the Western Ghats, from drought and heat stress.
- Support Farmers: Provide drought-resistant seeds, irrigation support, and compensation for crop losses.
- Support Fishers: Provide alternative livelihoods and compensation for declining fish catches.
- Support Shepherds: Provide fodder and water for livestock during drought conditions.
- Water Management: Enhance water storage and conservation measures to cope with potential rainfall deficits.
- Disaster Preparedness: Strengthen disaster response mechanisms for drought, heatwaves, and wildfires.
- Public Awareness: Educate the public about El Niño impacts and preparedness measures.
- Climate Action: Address the root cause of increasing El Niño intensity through climate change mitigation.
The 2026 El Niño is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of India’s ecosystems and communities to climate variability. The scientific community’s call to action is a timely reminder of the need for coordinated research, preparedness, and adaptation measures to safeguard India’s natural systems and the livelihoods that depend on them.
