Headline: Southwest Monsoon Ends With 12% Deficit, October Rain Also Likely Below Normal: IMD
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
Monsoon Deficit: India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rain, 12.6% below the 868.6-mm normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday. At 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA) , this is the lowest rainfall recorded during the monsoon since 2015, which was a tad drier at 758.2 mm.
Driest in Northeast: The east and northeast region, which recorded 1,017.1 mm of rainfall, had its driest monsoon since 1901, or since the IMD started to keep systematic records.
El Niño Impact: The subdued rainfall was in line with forecasts by global weather agencies, including the IMD, which anticipated one of the strongest El Niños in recent history. The IMD had, since April, predicted a subdued monsoon rainfall and overall, reality corresponded to what was forecast. On April 13, for instance, it anticipated the June-September rain to be at 92% of LPA, with an error window of 5%. The May 29 update lowered that to 90% with a 4% error window. The IMD’s final estimate sits within this range.
Withdrawal and Northeast Monsoon: The southwest monsoon this year is in the process of withdrawal and is likely to completely exit within the first weeks of October, IMD Director-General M. Mohapatra said. The country will then see the advent of the northeast monsoon. With the El Niño still gaining strength, rainfall for the country in October is likely to be below 85% of the LPA of about 75.4 mm. Most regions are expected to get below-normal rain, except parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of the east.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper I: Geography – Monsoon, El Niño, Climate patterns.
GS Paper III: Environment & Ecology – Climate change, Extreme weather events.
GS Paper III: Agriculture – Monsoon impact, Crop patterns, Irrigation.
GS Paper III: Disaster Management – Drought, Water scarcity.
GS Paper III: Economic Development – Agricultural growth, Rural economy.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. 2026 Monsoon Performance
| Parameter | Details |
| Actual Rainfall | 759.4 mm |
| Normal Rainfall | 868.6 mm |
| Deficit | 12.6% below normal |
| Percentage of LPA | 87% |
| Comparison | Lowest since 2015 (758.2 mm) |
B. Regional Variations
| Region | Rainfall | Observation |
| East and Northeast | 1,017.1 mm | Driest monsoon since 1901 |
| Other Regions | Below normal | Most regions expected to get below-normal rain |
C. IMD Forecast Accuracy
| Date | Forecast | Actual |
| April 13 | 92% of LPA (±5%) | Within range |
| May 29 | 90% of LPA (±4%) | Within range |
| Final | 87% of LPA | Within forecast range |
D. October Forecast
| Aspect | Details |
| October Rainfall | Likely below 85% of LPA |
| LPA for October | 75.4 mm |
| Below-Normal Areas | Most regions |
| Normal/Above-Normal Areas | Parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, isolated pockets of the east |
E. El Niño Context
| Aspect | Details |
| El Niño Status | Still gaining strength |
| Impact | Subdued monsoon rainfall |
| Classification | One of the strongest El Niños in recent history |
| Global Forecast | Subdued rainfall was anticipated by global weather agencies |
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
Southwest Monsoon: The annual monsoon season from June to September that brings the majority of India’s rainfall.
Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall recorded over a 50-year period (currently 1971-2020), used as a benchmark for monsoon performance.
El Niño: A periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific that dampens the Indian monsoon and leads to extreme hot and dry conditions.
Northeast Monsoon: The post-monsoon season (October-December) that brings rainfall to southern peninsular India, particularly Tamil Nadu.
Driest Monsoon: The lowest rainfall recorded since systematic records began in 1901.
IMD (India Meteorological Department): The national meteorological agency responsible for weather forecasting and monsoon prediction.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper I (Geography): “India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12% deficit, the lowest since 2015. Explain the role of El Niño in influencing monsoon rainfall and its regional variations.”
GS Paper III (Agriculture): “A deficient monsoon has significant implications for India’s agricultural sector and rural economy. Discuss the challenges and the measures needed to mitigate the impact.”
GS Paper III (Disaster Management): “The east and northeast region recorded its driest monsoon since 1901. Examine the implications for water security and disaster preparedness in the region.”
GS Paper I (Geography): “The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for October. Discuss the importance of the northeast monsoon for peninsular India and the factors influencing its performance.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
El Niño and Climate Change: The 2026 monsoon deficit is attributed to one of the strongest El Niños in recent history. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, with significant implications for India’s monsoon.
Agricultural Impact: A deficient monsoon affects kharif crop production, rural livelihoods, and food security. The government may need to provide support to farmers, including compensation and irrigation assistance.
Water Security: Below-normal rainfall affects reservoir levels, groundwater recharge, and drinking water availability, particularly in drought-prone regions.
Regional Disparities: The driest monsoon in the east and northeast since 1901 highlights the region’s vulnerability to climate variability.
Northeast Monsoon: The northeast monsoon is critical for Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and other southern states. Below-normal rainfall could affect agricultural production and water availability in these regions.
Forecast Accuracy: The IMD’s forecasts accurately predicted the subdued monsoon, reflecting improvements in forecasting capabilities.
Conclusion & Way Forward
India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% deficit, the lowest rainfall since 2015, driven by one of the strongest El Niños in recent history. The east and northeast region recorded its driest monsoon since 1901.
The IMD’s forecasts accurately predicted the subdued monsoon, and with El Niño still gaining strength, October rainfall is likely to be below normal. Most regions are expected to get below-normal rain, except parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of the east.
The Way Forward
- Agricultural Support: Provide support to farmers affected by deficient rainfall, including compensation, seeds, and irrigation assistance.
- Water Management: Strengthen water conservation and management measures to cope with below-normal rainfall.
- Drought Preparedness: Enhance drought preparedness, particularly in the east and northeast region, which recorded its driest monsoon since 1901.
- Northeast Monsoon Monitoring: Closely monitor the northeast monsoon, which is critical for southern peninsular India.
- Climate Adaptation: Invest in climate-resilient agriculture and water infrastructure to cope with increasing climate variability.
- Relief Measures: Ensure timely relief measures for drought-affected regions.
- Research and Monitoring: Continue research on El Niño and its impacts on the Indian monsoon to improve forecasting.
The 2026 monsoon deficit is a reminder of India’s vulnerability to climate variability. With El Niño gaining strength, coordinated action is needed to mitigate the impact on agriculture, water security, and rural livelihoods.
Headline: SC Rules Out Total Ban on Firecrackers for Deepavali
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
No Nationwide Ban: Ruling out a nationwide ban on firecrackers, the Supreme Court on Wednesday accepted suggestions by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (CSIR-NEERI) for a “limited and conditional relaxation.” The court backed the premier scientific body’s recommendations for manufacture of next-generation joined green crackers in compliance with applicable noise, emission, and safety requirements ahead of Deepavali festivities.
Green Cracker Specifications: Appearing before a Bench headed by Justice M.M. Sundresh, Additional Solicitor-General Aishwarya Bhati, for the Centre, said CSIR-NEERI has recommended that green crackers conform to specifications/formulations tested and approved by the competent authority and are made exclusively by duly-licensed manufacturers. CSIR-NEERI has suggested that crackers must be within the prescribed noise limit of 125 dB(AI)/145 dB(C) peak and strictly fall within permissible emission brackets, Ms. Bhati said.
Shell Size and Bursting Duration: The law officer submitted that CSIR-NEERI has prescribed the shell size, shell number and bursting duration/time of green crackers, which showed less noise and emissions than conventional joined crackers. The scientific report underscored that these crackers should be free of banned chemical ingredients.
Barium-Free Formulations: The CSIR-NEERI report on the “new-generation joined firecrackers” said a series of the green variety had been developed without the use of barium in their compositions. These crackers were different from the conventional ones in terms of shell/tube size, formulation, bursting duration, and frequency of bursting, with corresponding reductions in noise, particulate emissions and solid waste generation, the report said.
30% Reduction in Emissions: Tests conducted on them show a 30% reduction in emissions compared to conventional joined crackers. The shrinking of the shell size has also reduced solid waste generation from 4% up to 32%, the report said. “The bursting time duration has increased five times in the next-generation joined green crackers,” the report noted.
Balanced View: The court said it would take a balanced view on the issue of firecrackers, particularly with apprehensions of air pollution with the onset of winter and the festive season. “Total ban will hurt certain sentiments. We will not agree on a total ban across the country. At the same time, we will not allow a 24-hour bursting anywhere, as it affects the sick, the elderly, and children,” the Bench remarked orally. The court said it would look into directing specific time windows for bursting crackers.
Further Testing: The court gave more time to the Central Pollution Control Board and the Union government to continue with further barium and joined firecracker tests to test decibel levels.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper III: Environment & Ecology – Air pollution, Firecrackers, Green alternatives.
GS Paper II: Governance – Regulatory framework, Judicial intervention, Public health.
GS Paper III: Science & Technology – Green crackers, Emission reduction.
GS Paper II: Judiciary – PIL, Judicial review, Balancing interests.
GS Paper I: Society – Festivals, Cultural sentiments, Public health.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. The Supreme Court’s Key Observations
| Observation | Details |
| No Total Ban | “Total ban will hurt certain sentiments. We will not agree on a total ban across the country” |
| No 24-Hour Bursting | “We will not allow a 24-hour bursting anywhere, as it affects the sick, the elderly, and children” |
| Balanced View | Court will take a balanced view on air pollution with the onset of winter and festive season |
| Time Windows | Court will look into directing specific time windows for bursting crackers |
| CSIR-NEERI Report | Accepted recommendations for “limited and conditional relaxation” |
| Green Crackers | Backed manufacture of next-generation joined green crackers |
B. CSIR-NEERI Recommendations
| Aspect | Details |
| Specifications | Green crackers must conform to specifications/formulations tested and approved by competent authority |
| Manufacturers | Made exclusively by duly-licensed manufacturers |
| Noise Limit | 125 dB(AI)/145 dB(C) peak |
| Emission Brackets | Strictly fall within permissible emission brackets |
| Shell Size and Duration | Prescribed shell size, shell number and bursting duration/time |
| Banned Ingredients | Free of banned chemical ingredients |
| Barium-Free | Series developed without use of barium |
C. Green Cracker Performance
| Parameter | Improvement |
| Emissions | 30% reduction compared to conventional joined crackers |
| Solid Waste | Reduced from 4% up to 32% |
| Bursting Duration | Increased five times |
| Noise | Less noise than conventional joined crackers |
D. The Legal and Regulatory Context
| Aspect | Details |
| Petitioner | [Not specified in available information] |
| Bench | Headed by Justice M.M. Sundresh |
| ASG | Aishwarya Bhati, for the Centre |
| Further Testing | CPCB and Union government to continue barium and joined firecracker tests |
| Decibel Levels | To be tested further |
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
Green Crackers: Firecrackers developed by CSIR-NEERI that use alternative formulations to reduce emissions, noise, and solid waste.
CSIR-NEERI: Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-National Environmental Engineering Research Institute; the premier scientific body that developed green crackers.
Barium: A chemical element used in conventional firecrackers; green crackers are developed without barium to reduce toxicity.
Joined Firecrackers: A type of firecracker where multiple crackers are joined together; the new-generation versions have reduced emissions and noise.
dB(AI) and dB(C): Units of sound measurement; dB(AI) is A-weighted impulse sound level, and dB(C) is C-weighted peak sound level.
Time Windows: Specific periods during which firecrackers can be burst, as directed by the court.
Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB): The statutory body responsible for pollution control and environmental protection.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper III (Environment): “The Supreme Court has ruled out a total ban on firecrackers for Deepavali, opting for a ‘limited and conditional relaxation’ with green crackers. Discuss the environmental and health implications of this decision.”
GS Paper II (Governance): “The Supreme Court’s balanced approach on firecrackers reflects the tension between cultural sentiments and public health. Examine the role of the judiciary in balancing competing interests.”
GS Paper III (Science & Technology): “CSIR-NEERI’s green crackers reduce emissions by 30% and solid waste by up to 32%. Discuss the potential of green crackers to mitigate air pollution during festive seasons.”
GS Paper II (Judiciary): “The Supreme Court has directed specific time windows for bursting crackers. Analyse the effectiveness of judicial interventions in addressing air pollution.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
Air Pollution and Public Health: Firecrackers contribute to air pollution, particularly during winter when pollution levels are already high. The court’s decision balances the need to protect public health with cultural sentiments.
Green Alternatives: The development of green crackers by CSIR-NEERI offers a viable alternative to conventional firecrackers, reducing emissions and noise while preserving the festive spirit.
Judicial Balancing: The court’s decision reflects its role in balancing competing interests—cultural sentiments, public health, and environmental protection.
Enforcement Challenges: The effectiveness of the court’s directions depends on enforcement by the CPCB, state pollution control boards, and law enforcement agencies.
Public Awareness: The success of green crackers depends on public awareness and acceptance. The government and civil society must promote their use.
Cultural Sentiments: The court acknowledged that a total ban would hurt certain sentiments, reflecting sensitivity to cultural practices.
Conclusion & Way Forward
The Supreme Court’s decision to rule out a total ban on firecrackers for Deepavali, while accepting CSIR-NEERI’s recommendations for green crackers and considering specific time windows, reflects a balanced approach to a complex issue. The court acknowledged the cultural significance of firecrackers while also addressing concerns about air pollution and public health.
The CSIR-NEERI report provides a scientific basis for the use of green crackers, which reduce emissions by 30% and solid waste by up to 32%. The court’s direction to continue testing for barium and decibel levels will provide further data for future decisions.
The Way Forward
- Promote Green Crackers: The government and CSIR-NEERI should promote the use of green crackers through awareness campaigns.
- Enforce Time Windows: The CPCB and state pollution control boards should enforce the time windows directed by the court.
- Continue Testing: The CPCB and Union government should continue testing for barium and decibel levels.
- Public Health: Ensure that the use of firecrackers does not exacerbate air pollution, particularly for vulnerable populations.
- Licensing: Ensure that green crackers are made exclusively by duly-licensed manufacturers.
- Monitoring: Monitor compliance with noise and emission limits.
- Awareness: Educate the public about the benefits of green crackers and the importance of following time windows.
The Supreme Court’s balanced approach provides a framework for celebrating Deepavali while protecting public health and the environment. With effective implementation and public cooperation, this approach can serve as a model for future festive seasons.
Headline :NCERT Textbook Revives Debatable Theory on Sengol Handed to Nehru at Independence
Preliminary Facts (For Mains Answer Introduction)
NCERT Mention: The Union government’s claim that a Sengol, a sceptre anointed by Hindu religious leaders, marked the transfer of power in 1947 when India became Independent, finds a mention in the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT)’s newly released Class 9 social science textbook.
Textbook Content: The new textbook, Understanding Society: India and Beyond – Part Two, says, “The Sengol, a cultural marker of rulership and good governance, was placed in India’s newly inaugurated Parliament building in 2023 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The tradition of using the Sengol as a mark of righteous governance began more than a thousand years ago during the reign of Chola dynasty.” It further states, “To mark the occasion of India’s Independence, at the stroke of midnight on 15 August 1947, the first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, received the Sengol from the Adheenam saints (an old Shaivite tradition) of Tamil Nadu.”
Government’s Position: The Union Culture Ministry’s website describes the Sengol as “once integral to the coronation rites of Tamil monarchs” and says it was “not merely a ceremonial object but a profound testament to the ethical responsibilities bestowed upon a ruler.” It claims the tradition was “momentously revived on the eve of India’s independence in 1947, when a Sengol was solemnly presented to Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. It marked the ‘civilisationally rooted’ transfer of authority from colonial rule to a sovereign Indian state.”
Expert Contradiction: This theory has been contradicted time and again by experts. Historian and biographer of C. Rajagopalachari, Rajmohan Gandhi, has said there is no record of the Sengol serving as a formal symbol of the “transfer of power,” in the personal papers, letters or autobiographies of either Nehru or Rajaji. Historian Aditya Mukherjee had also criticised the 2023 ceremony and the installation of the Sengol, stating that the event was an effort of political self-glorification rather than celebrating parliamentary democracy.
Broader Textbook Themes: The textbook says India’s national motto — Satyameva Jayate — is linked to Mundaka Upanishad replacing the British-era “Heaven’s Light, Our Guide.” It says the Supreme Court’s post-Independence motto Yato Dharmastato Jayah, which translates into “Where there is righteous duty, there is victory,” is linked to the Mahabharata. The chapter links Mahatma Gandhi’s reference to Ram Rajya to the Ramayana and the 16th century literary work Ramcharitmanas, calling these two texts “examples of good governance and good collective life.”
Governance as Sacred Responsibility: The textbook says that from the Vedic period to the Ramayana and Mahabharata, Indian traditions viewed governance as a “sacred responsibility” rather than merely a means of exercising power. It says colonial powers imposed their models of governance on societies which had previously followed “local and organic systems,” and that many colonial institutions have continued since Independence.
Resistance and Resilience: In another chapter titled “Resistance and Resilience,” the textbook says many kings and princes are believed to have received swords from goddesses such as Kali, Durga and Bhavani to resist invasions since the 7th century.
Syllabus Mapping (Relevance)
GS Paper I: History & Culture – Indian independence, Transfer of power, Cultural symbols.
GS Paper II: Governance – Education policy, Curriculum design, NCERT.
GS Paper I: Society – Cultural nationalism, Historical narratives.
GS Paper II: Polity – Secularism, National symbols.
GS Paper III: Science & Technology – Educational content, Textbook revision.
Deep Dive: Core Issues & Analysis (For Mains Answer Body)
A. The Sengol Controversy: Key Claims and Counter-Claims
| Aspect | Government/Textbook Claim | Experts’ Contradiction |
| Historical Basis | Sengol marked transfer of power in 1947 | No record in Nehru’s or Rajaji’s papers, letters, or autobiographies |
| Ceremony | Nehru received Sengol from Adheenam saints at midnight on August 15, 1947 | Historians question whether this constituted a formal “transfer of power” |
| Symbolism | Civilisationally rooted transfer of authority from colonial rule | Political self-glorification rather than celebrating parliamentary democracy |
| Chola Tradition | Tradition of Sengol as mark of righteous governance began during Chola dynasty | Historians dispute the continuity and significance claimed |
B. The 2023 Installation Ceremony
| Aspect | Details |
| Date | May 2023 |
| Location | New Parliament Building |
| Installed By | Prime Minister Narendra Modi |
| Significance | Described by government as “cultural marker of rulership and good governance” |
| Criticism | Historian Aditya Mukherjee called it “political self-glorification” |
C. Broader Textbook Themes
| Theme | Textbook Content |
| National Motto | Satyameva Jayate linked to Mundaka Upanishad, replacing British-era motto |
| Supreme Court Motto | Yato Dharmastato Jayah linked to Mahabharata |
| Ram Rajya | Linked to Ramayana and Ramcharitmanas as “examples of good governance” |
| Governance as Sacred | Indian traditions viewed governance as “sacred responsibility” |
| Colonial Legacy | Colonial powers imposed their models; many institutions continue since Independence |
| Resistance | Kings received swords from goddesses to resist invasions since 7th century |
Key Terms (For Prelims & Mains)
Sengol: A sceptre from Tamil Nadu, traditionally associated with the Chola dynasty, symbolising righteous governance and the transfer of power.
NCERT: National Council of Educational Research and Training – the apex body for curriculum development in India.
Adheenam: A Shaivite monastic order in Tamil Nadu; the Thiruvavaduthurai Adheenam is associated with the Sengol ceremony.
Transfer of Power: The process by which India gained independence from British rule on August 15, 1947.
Ram Rajya: The ideal governance structure based on probity, transparency, compassion, and welfare, referenced by Mahatma Gandhi.
Satyameva Jayate: “Truth alone triumphs” – India’s national motto, linked to the Mundaka Upanishad.
Yato Dharmastato Jayah: “Where there is righteous duty, there is victory” – the Supreme Court’s motto, linked to the Mahabharata.
Mains Question Framing
GS Paper I (History): “The NCERT textbook’s mention of the Sengol as a symbol of transfer of power in 1947 has revived a historical debate. Critically examine the claims and counter-claims regarding the Sengol’s role in India’s independence.”
GS Paper II (Governance): “The inclusion of the Sengol narrative in NCERT textbooks raises questions about the politicisation of education. Discuss the implications for curriculum design and historical accuracy.”
GS Paper I (Society): “The Sengol controversy reflects the tension between cultural nationalism and historical evidence. Analyse the socio-political dimensions of this debate.”
GS Paper II (Polity): “The NCERT textbook links Indian governance traditions to ancient texts. Examine the role of education in shaping national identity and historical narratives.”
Linkage to Broader Issues & Debates
Politicisation of Education: The inclusion of the Sengol narrative in NCERT textbooks raises concerns about the politicisation of education and the use of curriculum to promote particular ideological narratives.
Historical Accuracy vs. Cultural Symbolism: The controversy highlights the tension between historical accuracy and cultural symbolism. While the Sengol may have cultural significance, historians question its claimed role in the transfer of power.
Cultural Nationalism: The Sengol narrative is part of a broader push to emphasise India’s civilisational heritage and cultural nationalism in education.
Textbook Revision: The NCERT textbook revision reflects the government’s broader efforts to reshape educational content to align with its vision of Indian history and culture.
Expert Scrutiny: The contradiction by historians like Rajmohan Gandhi and Aditya Mukherjee highlights the importance of expert scrutiny in curriculum development.
Conclusion & Way Forward
The NCERT textbook’s mention of the Sengol as a symbol of the transfer of power in 1947 has revived a contentious historical debate. While the government and its supporters present the Sengol as a civilisational symbol of righteous governance, historians have questioned the evidentiary basis for the claim that it marked the formal transfer of power.
The textbook’s broader themes—linking Indian governance traditions to ancient texts like the Ramayana, Mahabharata, and Upanishads—reflect a broader effort to emphasise India’s cultural heritage in education. However, this raises important questions about the balance between cultural pride and historical accuracy.
The Way Forward
- Evidence-Based Curriculum: Curriculum development should be based on rigorous historical evidence and expert consultation.
- Balanced Narratives: Textbooks should present multiple perspectives on contested historical events.
- Expert Consultation: Historians and subject experts should be involved in curriculum design to ensure accuracy.
- Transparency: The process of textbook revision should be transparent and open to scrutiny.
- Critical Thinking: Students should be encouraged to critically examine historical claims and evidence.
- Cultural Heritage: While celebrating India’s cultural heritage, textbooks should distinguish between historical fact and cultural symbolism.
The NCERT textbook controversy is a reminder of the importance of maintaining academic integrity and historical accuracy in education. The way forward requires a balanced approach that respects both cultural heritage and historical evidence.
